November 03, 2004

The waves of existence

To give insights into why Bush won the election yesterday, a friend sent out the following text, from (or after) the "integral thinker" Ken Wilber, synthesizing the works of Dr. Clare Graves on the levels of existence as well as Cowan and Beck's spiral dynamics theory). This article catches my attention: it is the first time I see a model describing human evolution!

"Spiral dynamics and the waves of existence.

The first six levels are "subsistence levels" marked by "first-tier thinking." Then there occurs a revolutionary shift in consciousness: the emergence of "being levels" and "second-tier thinking," of which there are two major waves. Here is a brief description of all eight waves, the percentage of the world population at each wave, and the percentage of social power held by each.

1. Beige: Archaic-Instinctual. The level of basic survival; food, water, warmth, sex, and safety have priority. Uses habits and instincts just to survive. Distinct self is barely awakened or sustained. Forms into survival bands to perpetuate life.

Where seen: First human societies, newborn infants, senile elderly, late-stage Alzheimer's victims, mentally ill street people, starving masses, shell shock. Approximately 0.1% of the adult population, 0% power.

2. Purple: Magical-Animistic. Thinking is animistic; magical spirits, good and bad, swarm the earth leaving blessings, curses, and spells which determine events. Forms into ethnic tribes. The spirits exist in ancestors and bond the tribe. Kinship and lineage establish political links. Sounds "holistic" but is actually atomistic: "there is a name for each bend in the river but no name for the river."

Where seen: Belief in voodoo-like curses, blood oaths, ancient grudges, good luck charms, family rituals, magical ethnic beliefs and superstitions; strong in Third-World settings, gangs, athletic teams, and corporate "tribes." 10% of the population, 1% of the power.

3. Red: Power Gods. First emergence of a self distinct from the tribe; powerful, impulsive, egocentric, heroic. Magical-mythic spirits, dragons, beasts, and powerful people. Archetypal gods and goddesses, powerful beings, forces to be reckoned with, both good and bad. Feudal lords protect underlings in exchange for obedience and labor. The basis of feudal empires -- power and glory. The world is a jungle full of threats and predators. Conquers, out-foxes, and dominates; enjoys self to the fullest without regret or remorse; be here now.

Where seen: The "terrible twos," rebellious youth, frontier mentalities, feudal kingdoms, epic heroes, James Bond villains, gang leaders, soldiers of fortune, New-Age narcissism, wild rock stars, Attila the Hun, Lord of the Flies. 20% of the population, 5% of the power.

4. Blue: Mythic Order. Life has meaning, direction, and purpose, with outcomes determined by an all-powerful Other or Order. This righteous Order enforces a code of conduct based on absolutist and unvarying principles of "right" and "wrong." Violating the code or rules has severe, perhaps everlasting repercussions. Following the code yields rewards for the faithful. Basis of ancient nations. Rigid social hierarchies; paternalistic; one right way and only one right way to think about everything. Law and order; impulsivity controlled through guilt; concrete-literal and fundamentalist belief; obedience to the rule of Order; strongly conventional and conformist. Often "religious" or "mythic" [in the mythic-membership sense; Graves and Beck refer to it as the "saintly/absolutistic" level], but can be secular or atheistic Order or Mission.

Where seen: Puritan America, Confucian China, Dickensian England, Singapore discipline, totalitarianism, codes of chivalry and honor, charitable good deeds, religious fundamentalism (e.g., Christian and Islamic), Boy and Girl Scouts, "moral majority," patriotism. 40% of the population, 30% of the power.

5. Orange: Scientific Achievement. At this wave, the self "escapes" from the "herd mentality" of blue, and seeks truth and meaning in individualistic terms -- hypothetico-deductive, experimental, objective, mechanistic, operational -- "scientific" in the typical sense. The world is a rational and well-oiled machine with natural laws that can be learned, mastered, and manipulated for one's own purposes. Highly achievement oriented, especially (in America) toward materialistic gains. The laws of science rule politics, the economy, and human events. The world is a chess-board on which games are played as winners gain pre-eminence and perks over losers. Marketplace alliances; manipulate earth's resources for one's strategic gains. Basis of corporate states.

Where seen: The Enlightenment, Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, Wall Street, emerging middle classes around the world, cosmetics industry, trophy hunting, colonialism, the Cold War, fashion industry, materialism, secular humanism, liberal self-interest. 30% of the population, 50% of the power.

6. Green: The Sensitive Self. Communitarian, human bonding, ecological sensitivity, networking. The human spirit must be freed from greed, dogma, and divisiveness; feelings and caring supersede cold rationality; cherishing of the earth, Gaia, life. Against hierarchy; establishes lateral bonding and linking. Permeable self, relational self, group intermeshing. Emphasis on dialogue, relationships. Basis of value communities (i.e., freely chosen affiliations based on shared sentiments). Reaches decisions through reconciliation and consensus (downside: interminable "processing" and incapacity to reach decisions). Refresh spirituality, bring harmony, enrich human potential. Strongly egalitarian, anti-hierarchy, pluralistic values, social construction of reality, diversity, multiculturalism, relativistic value systems; this worldview is often called pluralistic relativism. Subjective, nonlinear thinking; shows a greater degree of affective warmth, sensitivity, and caring, for earth and all its inhabitants.

Where seen: Deep ecology, postmodernism, Netherlands idealism, Rogerian counseling, Canadian health care, humanistic psychology, liberation theology, cooperative inquiry, World Council of Churches, Greenpeace, animal rights, ecofeminism, post-colonialism, Foucault/Derrida, politically correct, diversity movements, human rights issues, ecopsychology. 10% of the population, 15% of the power. [Note: this is 10% of the world population. Don Beck estimates that around 20-25% of the American population is green.]

7. Yellow: Integrative. Life is a kaleidoscope of natural hierarchies [holarchies], systems, and forms. Flexibility, spontaneity, and functionality have the highest priority. Differences and pluralities can be integrated into interdependent, natural flows. Egalitarianism is complemented with natural degrees of ranking and excellence. Knowledge and competency should supersede power, status, or group sensitivity. The prevailing world order is the result of the existence of different levels of reality (memes) and the inevitable patterns of movement up and down the dynamic spiral. Good governance facilitates the emergence of entities through the levels of increasing complexity (nested hierarchy).

1% of the population, 5% of the power.

8. Turquoise: Holistic. Universal holistic system, holons/waves of integrative energies; unites feeling with knowledge; multiple levels interwoven into one conscious system. Universal order, but in a living, conscious fashion, not based on external rules (blue) or group bonds (green). A "grand unification" [a "theory of everything" or T.O.E.] is possible, in theory and in actuality. Sometimes involves the emergence of a new spirituality as a meshwork of all existence. Turquoise thinking uses the entire Spiral; sees multiple levels of interaction; detects harmonics, the mystical forces, and the pervasive flow-states that permeate any organization.

0.1% of the population, 1% of the power.

Leap to second tier thinking (leap from L6 green to L7 yellow): With the completion of the green meme, human consciousness is poised for a quantum jump into "second-tier thinking." Clare Graves referred to this as a "momentous leap," where "a chasm of unbelievable depth of meaning is crossed." In essence, with second-tier consciousness, one can think both vertically and horizontally, using both hierarchies and heterarchies (both ranking and linking). One can therefore, for the first time, vividly grasp the entire spectrum of interior development, and thus see that each level, each meme, each wave is crucially important for the health of the overall Spiral.

As I would word it, each wave is "transcend and include." That is, each wave goes beyond (or transcends) its predecessor, and yet it includes or embraces it in its own makeup. For example, a cell transcends but includes molecules, which transcend but include atoms. To say that a molecule goes beyond an atom is not to say that molecules hate atoms, but that they love them: they embrace them in their own makeup; they include them, they don't marginalize them. Just so, each wave of existence is a fundamental ingredient of all subsequent waves, and thus each is to be cherished and embraced.

Moreover, each wave can itself be activated or reactivated as life circumstances warrant. In emergency situations, we can activate red power drives; in response to chaos, we might need to activate blue order; in looking for a new job, we might need orange achievement drives; in marriage and with friends, close green bonding. All of these memes have something important to contribute.

But what none of the first-tier memes can do, on their own, is fully appreciate the existence of the other memes. Each of the first-tier memes thinks that its worldview is the correct or best perspective. It reacts negatively if challenged; it lashes out, using its own tools, whenever it is threatened. Blue order is very uncomfortable with both red impulsiveness and orange individualism. Orange individualism thinks blue order is for suckers and green egalitarianism is weak and woo-woo. Green egalitarianism cannot easily abide excellence and value rankings, big pictures, hierarchies, or anything that appears authoritarian, and thus green reacts strongly to blue, orange, and anything post-green. 

All of that begins to change with second-tier thinking. Because second-tier consciousness is fully aware of the interior stages of development -- even if it cannot articulate them in a technical fashion -- it steps back and grasps the big picture, and thus second-tier thinking appreciates the necessary role that all of the various memes play. Second-tier awareness thinks in terms of the overall spiral of existence, and not merely in the terms of any one level.

Where the green meme begins to grasp the numerous different systems and pluralistic contexts that exist in different cultures (which is why it is indeed the sensitive self, i.e., sensitive to the marginalization of others), second-tier thinking goes one step further. It looks for the rich contexts that link and join these pluralistic systems, and thus it takes these separate systems and begins to embrace, include, and integrate them into holistic spirals and integral meshworks. Second-tier thinking, in other words, is instrumental in moving from relativism to holism, or from pluralism to integralism.

The extensive research of Graves, Beck, and Cowan indicates that there are at least two major waves to this second-tier integral consciousness: With less than 2 percent of the population at second-tier thinking (and only 0.1 percent at turquoise), second-tier consciousness is relatively rare because it is now the "leading-edge" of collective human evolution. As examples, Beck and Cowan mention items that include Teilhard de Chardin's noosphere, chaos and complexity theories, universal systems thinking, integral-holistic theories, Gandhi's and Mandela's pluralistic integration, with increases in frequency definitely on the way, and even higher memes still in the offing...."

So, Bush victory, simply... a victory of blue meme over green meme?

December 13, 2004

Spiritual awakening and the "waves of existence" framework

Here is an attempt to explain to my boyfriend my "spiritual awakening" using Ken Wilber’s "waves of Existence" model:

"A few weeks ago, I shared with you stuff that I had read presenting a model of human evolution, i.e. the evolution of human consciousness, through spiraling waves (both in history and in one's life). Remember, it went like this:

1. survival-instinctual (beige)
2. magical-animistic (purple)
3. "power gods" (red)
4. truth force, right/wrong, good/evil, us/them (blue)
5. science, achievement, rationalism, materialism, strive drive (orange)
6. human bond, sensitive self, community, ecology, pluralism (green)
7. integrative (yellow)
8. holistic, universal (turquoise),

with 1-6 being "first-tier", or "survival" levels, and 7-8 being "second-tier", or "higher consciousness", transcendental, mystical, etc.

I was making the comment that Bush was a blue/orange while Kerry was an orange/green and that the late election was the victory of "lower consciousness" over "higher consciousness". The model has been used to resolve conflicts, e.g. in reconstructing post-Apartheid South Africa, hence the use of colors to distract away from the racial divisions.

What has been happening to me (what I often refer to as my "awakening"), I would describe, using this model, as a jump from orange to turquoise (or to yellow/turquoise, i.e. 2nd tier). For the first 29 years of my life, I was pretty much a bright orange, and what happens sometimes with me now is some sort of oscillation between orange (the old state) and second tier (the new state). This is what you (or others) might perceive as instability, insecurity, not knowing myself, etc. Especially for example when I get to see my bright orange family of origin. "Shifting to a higher level of consciousness" does not happen without pain, feelings of inadequacies, awkwardness, uneasiness, necessity to shed the old skin if you wish (this is sometimes called spiritual emergence or awakening when it refers to jumping to second-tier consciousness). (…)

My desire and goal (personal development goal) is to establish residence in second-tier consciousness. To avoid oscillating back into orange as I do sometimes, as I did for example at times this week-end (takes the form of doubts in my head about the validity of my path). For this I need work on myself (at many levels, including physical, emotional, etc) and spiritual discipline (meditation, i.e. more direct spiritual experiences).

My second desire and goal ("career" goal) is (using that model) to help as many people as possible make the shift from orange or orange/green (i.e. the level of consciousness I've had most of my life: I feel somehow more gifted speaking to the oranges than speaking to the greens because I am more familiar with them) to second-tier consciousness."

January 12, 2005

The mean green meme

I send to Marco the "waves of existence" framework piece from Wilber, and add to it the following comment about "the mean green meme" (one of the points Wilber is most insistent on in his writings):

"One of the key comments on this model is this: our current Western culture is dominated by the green meme: liberalism, multiculturalism, pluralism, etc. And this "wave" has the important drawback of flirting with its own destruction. Here is why (from Wilber):

"Pluralism, multiculturalism, and egalitarianism, in their best forms, all stem from a very high developmental stance, a postconventional stance (early vision-logic, postformal cognition, green meme, etc.), and from that postconventional stance of worldcentric fairness and care, the green meme attempts to treat all previous memes with equal care and compassion, a truly noble intent. But because it embraces an intense egalitarianism, it fails to see that its own stance – which is the first stance that is even capable of egalitarianism – is itself a fairly rare, elite stance (somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of the population). Worse, the green meme then actively denies the hierarchical stages that produced the green meme in the first place. Pluralistic egalitarianism is the product, we have seen, of at least six major stages of hierarchical development, a hierarchy that it then turns around and aggressively denies in the name of egalitarianism!

Under the noble guise of liberal egalitarianism – and under the sanction of the intense subjectivistic stance of this pluralistic and relativistic wave – every previous wave of existence, no matter how shallow, egocentric, or narcissistic, is given encouragement to "be itself," even when "be itself" might include the most barbaric of stances. (If "pluralism" is really true, then we must invite the Nazis and the KKK to the multicultural banquet, since no stance is supposed to be better or worse than another, and so all must be treated in an egalitarian fashion – at which point the self-contradictions of undiluted pluralism come screaming to the fore.)

Thus, the very high developmental stance of pluralism – the product of at least six major stages of hierarchical transformation – turns around and denies all hierarchies, denies the very path that produced its own noble stance, and thus it ceases to demand hierarchical transformation from anybody else, and consequently it extends an egalitarian embrace to every stance, no matter how shallow or narcissistic. The more egalitarianism is implemented, the more it destroys the very capacity for egalitarianism."

And, of course, the solution is to simply acknowledge that there is a valid relationship that says: world-centric better than ethno-centric better than self-centric, i.e. when you have reached the world-centric stance, don't forget that a lot of your classmates are still ethno-centric, and that therefore your stance is HIGHER than (and not as valid as) theirs."

February 06, 2005

The wave raises all the boats, yet again

I have just received this beautiful email from Marco today! What a blessing! Here it is:

"Time has passed since I last wrote more about myself. The reason for my silence is that quite a lot has been happening in my mind. I wanted to stabilize my thoughts/awareness to be able to have a good grasp of the situation.

I must admit that Ken Wilber's writings have been and continue to be a big catalyst for my thoughts/awareness. However, much of it was there before, phrased differently, some of it there but unexplained. Thank you for the hint. The thing about Ken Wilber is that it permitted me to conceptualize and organize much of the thoughts/awareness that was present, and thus permitted me to step further, which I believe is happening right now.

For a long time I haven't been contemplating as seriously and clearly as I am now. I have been in a rather slow evolution, confused for quite some time. You noticed it very well when we met (I didn't at the time): I was bored! Well I'm getting out of it, I see the path, but I'm not there yet. I have started re-interpreting some parts of my thoughts/awareness and I started re-interpreting my past and my past growth. I do that mainly through dialogs with my self and I find them quite successful. (…)

Reading Ken Wilber I realize where on "the scale" I am, and where I'm going. I equally realize how the level where I am now is not yet to be transcended, there are still things to live out, figure out, and become aware of at this level. However, I can already start tasting slowly the fruits of the next level. Lately I have been able to get glimpses of it and I'm starting to feel it possible. Incredible thing this awareness! (…)

When I said I can get a glimpse of the next level, I meant that I (very) slowly feel the possibility of detaching my mind from my Self. The 3 page letter you sent me, or the No Boundary book, are great tools for achieving it. Rationally, I'm ready."

February 16, 2005

Diving into the blogosphere

My blog got referred to today in Coolmel's Kosmic bloggers blog (my first referrer!). This has simultaneously increased traffic to this blog (thank you Coolmel!), and uncovered for me, at last (!), the chunk of the blogosphere that expresses adventures similar to mine: spiritual awakening, evolution of consciousness, etc. One of the key rallying words is "integral" (so I decide to add Integral as a category in my blog), and of course about everybody devotes a lot of space to Ken Wilber, the pope of "integral everything" :-), really hard to avoid when you are having a spiritual awakening these days...! Seems that people who have embraced his thinking can hardly wait to see some of it wash over the mainstream...

Some interesting "integral blogs" (see also my blogs list in the right column): Coolmel's blog, Dashh, Pongsathorn's blog, Hokai's blog, and a host of others listed in Kosmic bloggers blog. I really like "Kosmic blogger", nice phrase!

February 17, 2005

(A lot) more on spiral dynamics

Spiral dynamics (the theory of human evolution that I first came across in November, used to put my spiritual awakening in a wider context, and which led me to Wilber's body of work) is one of the key concepts that "Kosmic bloggers" (see previous posting) rally around.

The latest formulation of this theory is Don Beck's Spiritual Dynamics Integral theory, exposed by the author on his three websites: Spiral Dynamics Integral (see for example how the theory has evolved), Center for Human Emergence, and his South-African website, Global Values Network (the theory was used to address racially-loaded post-Apartheid conflicts in South-Africa, hence the handiness of the "colors"). Check for example this essay from Don Beck that very well explains how the theory unfolds, and this other very good short essay.

A lot more material on Coolmel's Project Trinity blog (where I found most of the above). For example, check out this incredible interactive visual representation of the theory. It says it all in one drawing! (by the way stay tuned, that beautiful site soon to be updated with more visual representations of some of the key concepts of integral philosophy!)

February 18, 2005

Integral practice

Inspired by this Kosmic blogger, I have sketched out what my "Integral Practice", using the framework from Ken Wilber's One taste, P. 121-123, looks like.

Upper-Right quadrant (Individual, Objective, Behavioral)

Physical
- diet: with occasional exceptions, no meat, no alcohol, no coffee, no sugar, no white starch, lots of vegetables, eating light, eating at home (my diet naturally changed as I awoke spiritually: there were no "no this, no that" before).
- structural: yoga/running/swimming (total of 5 times a week), occasional hiking/mountaineering or mountainbiking on week-ends

Neurological
- pharmacological: no medication (consciously try to avoid them as much as possible)
- brain/mind machines: have not tried! Sounds wild!

Upper-Left quadrant (Individual, Subjective, Intentional)

Emotional
- breath: yoga (see above), relaxation (in combination with meditation)
- sex: mindful "whole-bodied" sex as much as possible! :-)

Mental
- therapy: not at the moment, but it took a big role in my awakening. Will consider going once a year or so for a few sessions.
- journaling: yes, the best tool for self-observation! It was a big part of my awakening too.
- lots of reading/researching spiritual literature

- vision (visualization, affirmation, conscious living): yes, as part of journaling and meditation. Conscious living has become the default state, I can't really "hide" anymore!

Spiritual (here I am not sure yet where my meditations fit in the 4 categories, but I practice different types of meditation to be sure ;-). I meditate an average of 1x30mn a day (I try 2x30mn a day) + meditation retreats now and then)
- psychic: contemplate nature whenever I can! (especially sunrises and sunsets, and the moon...)
- subtle: tonglen, mantra meditation (not sure they fit there)
- causal: vipassana (witnessing meditation)
- non-dual: guru yoga meditation from Diamond Way buddhism (I think this meditation actually covers all four types)

Lower-Right quadrant (Social, Interobjective)

Systems (exercising responsibility to earth, nature, biosphere, and geopolitical infrastructures at all levels)
- I am mindful of my impact on the planet: car usage, water, electricity, packaging, etc.
- I educate others as much as I can on global warming and other environmental issues.

Institutional (exercising educational, political, and civic duties to family, town, state, nation, world)
- I keep informed on what's going on in the world, I educate others whenever I get a chance!

Lower-Left quadrant (Cultural, Intersubjective)

Relationships (with family, friends, sentient beings in general, decentering the self, making relationships part of one's growth)
- Making relationships part of my growth has been one of the main realizations and focus of my spiritual growth.
- Especially, I work hard on creating a deep, beautiful relationship with my boyfriend!
- In general, I try to bring something to everyone I encounter: family, friends, anyone I interact with.

Community service (volunteer work, homeless shelters, hospice, etc.)
- I volunteer at the MIT club of Northern California, Renewable Energy program.
- Writing this blog? (not sure if/where it fits, there are Upper-Left and Lower-Right components also, so I put it in the middle ;-))

Morals (engaging the intersubjective world of the Good, practising compassion in relation to all sentient beings)
- Not sure what it means, but I guess I do that now... maybe Tonglen meditation actually fits here? (it opens the heart).

- I now relate to other beings' pains much more now and it seems much easier to "do Good" as it was pre-awakening, as I see more clearly what's going on.

March 10, 2005

Integral Coaching

Lots has happened in the past few days (which explains why I haven't been blogging, nor retro-blogging, much): I have found my life calling! Or, in other words, how to best embody, in this life, my Bodhisattva vow.

I'm going to be an Integral life coach! The methodology is based on Ken Wilber's AQAL model. This is what I call a match made in heaven. And for me: my life calling, i.e. the job I've been looking for ever since my "coming out" in December, 2003.

More info on what this is about in this article.

March 11, 2005

Make your life practice-centric

I had a conversation with a life coach friend of mine today to discuss how I can best prepare to become a life coach until classes begin in August. His answer: "Whatever your current practices are, deepen them". Also: "Make your life practice-centric". So I put together a plan to deepen the following (i.e. my main) practices:

  • Meditation/spirituality: do a round of exploration to find a sangha and spiritual teacher (I've been without any for a while now) to deepen personal practice, sign up for a retreat
  • Yoga: do more classes, practice daily at home, sign up for a retreat/workshop, get a private class
  • Journaling: deepen that practice, introduce the practice of automatic/intuitive writing, add also more structure (e.g. structured investigation/introspection, structured self-observations, etc)
  • Relationship: deepen current practices (e.g. love-making, Thai massage, hiking/biking together, speaking French together), and maybe find new practices to do together (dancing class?).

I will also be looking for some creative practice as I don't really have any, except writing this blog - but, say, something more artistic! I'm thinking of taking singing/chanting classes, finding a voice teacher, etc, as I love singing/chanting.

March 16, 2005

Global Warming: a plea to the Integral community

I saw on a couple of Kosmic blogs (e.g. here) praises for Michael Crichton’s book State of fear. Also, Vince writes here in his blog: "I also want to address a common reaction to global warming that comes from the integral community here in Boulder, and perhaps abroad. Indeed, a number of my friends and co-workers either disagree completely with the conclusions about global warming (although most of them are not familiar with the research), or they tend to minimize its importance...".

Well, unlike Michael Chrichton, I am not blessed with the extraordinary talent of writing page-turning best-selling thrillers, and unlike the bulk of the people who write what most other people read about global warming, I do not work for a newspaper (and, in case you wonder, I did not, nor will I, read State of Fear).

I spent 2 years at MIT, and then 2 years in a national Research Institute, doing and managing research on climate change (we call it climate change, given that, for many, "global warming" will mean "local cooling"). So, as I was researching "it" along with thousands of people around the world, I can tell you that climate change is happening – like, you’ve got dentists because you’ve got problems with your teeth sometimes, not because people conspire to scare you about your teeth. Also, I am not working in this function anymore, so I suppose it can’t be argued that I have a vested interest in promoting the "field".

The reason I quit that particular job and am doing what I am doing now (e.g. writing this blog or training to be an integral life coach) is because the problem is, in my view, not too small, but TOO LARGE for humanity in its current state of evolution to handle. Like Einstein said, "No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it". This was my observation, and it led me to the story I tell in this blog, i.e. a desire to grow people from inside, so that they can handle this "outside" problem they have created – in my view the largest and most "global", "world-centric", AQAL, all-encompassing problem humanity has ever been faced with.

That some environmentalists may have a vested interest in there being "environmental problems" to work on, as Michael Crichton, as I understand, suggests in his best-seller, maybe, but it is a bit like saying that doctors have a vested interest in you being sick: is this how much trust you put in your fellow beings? Even if there were some truth to this, and if there are some doctors out there who want you sick, let’s not by any means go the other way pretending that there are no environmental problems, or that global warming is, in fact, a big conspiracy – beware of not throwing away the baby with the water. Also, most climate change scientists I know are not "environmentalists", nor are they "politicized". They are just, well, scientists – and people, like you and me.

A few summary facts for the newbies on climate change (welcome to the party!):

  • We (humans) emit greenhouse gases (from burning fossil fuels, mostly)
  • This has resulted in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration having increased almost two-fold since the beginning of the industrial age (i.e. in the past 150 years or so), while it had been more or less constant for thousands of years before that
  • A higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere results in the planet warming up ("the greenhouse effect"). This warming-up caused by the accumulation of man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is now well observed and has been recorded for the past 10-20 years or so. It causes a whole range of "climate change" effects (not only "warming").
  • The atmosphere is currently "holding" about 5% of the quantity of carbon that is stored underground in the form of fossil fuels (i.e. if we burn it all, we will throw into the atmosphere about 20 times more than what is already there). So, humanity’s energy problem is not about scarcity or fossil fuel, but scarcity of "space in the atmosphere", if you wish (the limiting factor will be the latter, rather than the former).
  • If we continue emitting the way we do now, the concentration of greenhouse gases will have tripled in 50 years.
  • There is a fair amount of inertia in the system: even if we stop emitting now, the earth will continue warming up (and its climate to change) for decades or more
  • Humans must stop emitting greenhouse gases or at least reduce emissions drastically to slow down climate change – less because we are able to quantify the adverse consequences of this change, but rather as a basic precautionary principle: let's not mess up with our host system so much, if we can avoid it!
  • On this premise, the world’s governments, through the United Nations, have agreed in 1990 at the Rio convention to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [i.e. man-made] interference with the climate system" (but we don't know what level is NOT dangerous yet!). See full text here.
  • Seeing that most nations were off-target (i.e. not on their way to stabilization), in 1997, they decided to put in place an international cap-and-trade system (largely inspired by the cap-and-trade system for NOx and SO2 in the US). This system is formalized in "the Kyoto Protocol", which has just entered into force on February 16, 2005. 141 countrie ratified it. The US, most notably, did not. See full text here.
  • In 1997 in Kyoto, the world’s governments agreed to emissions targets for the period 2008-2012. They also agreed to meet up again every 5 years to negotiate targets for subsequent five-year periods, as we know more about what "concentration level" we deem to be "dangerous" for mankind. This debunks the classic but mistaken criticism of Kyoto that "Kyoto is not enough": Kyoto provides a framework for concerted action – the actual level of required action will be agreed upon amongst nations every 5 years.

More real information on climate change on what I see as the most complete and neutral source of information on the topic, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. You may also want to check, for a more "for dummies" version, Wikipedia. I posted other real sources of information (most of them non-"environmentalist") on Vince’s blog a few weeks ago.

Also of interest: Pew Center’s Answers to Key Questions Raised by M. Crichton in State of Fear, which concludes:

"The one-sidedness of his novel and personal comments have actually contributed to further politicization of climate change science, enhancing a phenomenon that Crichton himself argues is ultimately dangerous. As a novelist, this is his prerogative, but the end result is a work of fiction that does little to educate while it seeks to entertain." 

And in case you run into "the hockey stick controversy", here are two rather unbiased articles on the subject, from About.com and the Wall Street Journal.

I know how emotional the issue of man-made climate change is, which explains why climate change science is being (and is going to be) debated so fiercely. This, I suppose, is a blessing in disguise: I trust that it will prompt more and more people (like Vince did) to want to get the real facts, beyond pop literature and newspapers' opinion columns.

So, what we all can do to help, at a minimum (and this is my plea): spend a little bit of time reaching for the real information about climate change (this IS by definition a COMPLEX issue, so let's not hesitate to spend at least the time it will take us to read the next best-selling page-turner), dispel any mis-information or myth we see or hear (i.e. discriminate fact from fluff) and help people around us with the same!

Thanks to all, and may all beings be happy!

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